Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. They authors two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
